Our read
Qualitative judgments on a five-point scale, not licensed index values. Ranked #45 of 49 markets we cover.
The case for
- Government and university payrolls are recession-resistant, and entry pricing is among the lowest we track.
The case against
- Limited rent growth potential and a small pool of quality assets.
Our stanceMonitoring.
The figures that matter
- Median home value
- $242,800 ACS 2020-2024 · U.S. Census Bureau The lowest of any market we have researched, below Greenville and Huntsville at about $299,000.
- Median household income
- $63,784 ACS 2020-2024, in 2024 dollars · U.S. Census Bureau Also the lowest we have measured, below Richmond city at $64,587.
- Government employment
- 85,100 +0.1% year over year July 2026, preliminary · U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics The largest sector, about 19.5 percent of all jobs. Steady rather than growing.
- Construction employment
- 20,900 +9.4% year over year July 2026, preliminary · U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics The fastest construction growth in our entire coverage, ahead of Charlotte at 8.2 percent.
- Professional and business services
- 53,100 -5.3% year over year July 2026, preliminary · U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics The steepest decline in that sector across every market we have researched.
- Median home value to income
- 3.8x ACS 2020-2024, our arithmetic on two Census figures · U.S. Census Bureau Second most attainable in our coverage, behind Huntsville at about 3.5.
- Poverty rate
- 15.8% ACS 2020-2024 · U.S. Census Bureau Second highest we measure, behind Richmond city at 18.2 percent.
- Effective cap rate at entry
- Pending Not held · U.S. Census Bureau Transaction cap rates require a licensed subscription we do not hold. We will not estimate one.
Where we would and would not transact
Richland County median home value is $242,800. That is not merely low, it is the lowest of any geography in this entire series by a clear margin: Greenville is $299,000, Huntsville $299,200, Chatham County $302,700, Dallas $303,000, and Los Angeles $834,200.2
Median household income is $63,784, and that is also the lowest we have measured, below Richmond city at $64,587 and Miami-Dade at $71,753. Median gross rent is $1,228, second only to Huntsville at $1,209 as the lowest in our coverage.2
Put those together and the affordability picture is genuinely good for residents. Price-to-income is about 3.8 on our arithmetic, second most attainable in our coverage behind Huntsville at about 3.5. Rent is about 23.1 percent of median household income, comfortably below the threshold HUD uses to define a cost-burdened household. Median owner cost with a mortgage is $1,533, only $305 a month above the median rent.2
For an owner that cuts the way it has in Greenville and Huntsville. Cheap housing relative to income means the renter can leave, and 60.3 percent of Richland households already own. A Columbia underwriting cannot lean on rent escalation, because a $305 monthly gap is not much of a barrier.2
There is a second reading that matters more here than in those markets. Poverty in Richland County is 15.8 percent, the second highest we have measured after Richmond city. Low prices and low incomes are the same fact seen from two directions, and a tenant base at this income level has limited absorptive capacity for an expense pass-through or a renovation premium, whatever the affordability ratio says.2
- Median home value $242,800, the lowest in our coverage.2
- Median household income $63,784, also the lowest.2
- Price to income about 3.8; rent about 23.1 percent of income.2
- Poverty 15.8 percent, second highest we measure.2
Low prices and low incomes are the same fact seen from two directions. The affordability ratio looks healthy; the tenant’s capacity to absorb a rent increase does not follow from it.
Three institutions hold this economy steady without growing it
Government employs 85,100 people in this metro, about 19.5 percent of all jobs on our arithmetic, which is the second highest government concentration in our coverage behind Huntsville at 20.1 percent. It is also, over the last twelve months, essentially static: up 0.1 percent.1
That single line describes the character of this market. The state capital, the University of South Carolina and Fort Jackson are large, permanent and geographically immovable. They do not lay people off in a recession and they do not add thousands of jobs in an expansion. They produce stability, which is genuinely valuable, and they do not produce growth.
The rest of the employment picture is mixed. Education and health services grew 3.4 percent on 66,400 jobs and leisure and hospitality 3.0 percent on 41,600. Against that, professional and business services fell 5.3 percent to 53,100, which is the steepest decline in that sector of any market in this series, and manufacturing fell 1.8 percent and information 4.5 percent. Total nonfarm employment grew 1.0 percent to 435,700, with unemployment at 4.0 percent.1
A metro whose largest sector is flat and whose second largest private sector is shedding jobs at 5.3 percent is not a growth market. It is a stable one with a soft patch in its professional employment, and an underwriting should treat occupancy as durable and rent growth as modest rather than the reverse.12
This deserves its own section because it is the single most common error we see in decks for this market, and the numbers involved are large enough to distort a demand argument badly.
Fort Jackson is the U.S. Army’s largest and most active initial entry training installation. It trains roughly 50 percent of all soldiers entering the Army each year, and more than 60 percent of women entering the Army, with in excess of 48,000 basic training soldiers and around 12,000 additional advanced training soldiers annually.
Those are genuinely enormous numbers, and they are not rental demand. Basic combat training runs about ten weeks and trainees live on post. A soldier passing through Fort Jackson does not sign a twelve-month lease in Columbia, does not form a household in Richland County, and does not appear in the Census household count.
The rental demand from the installation comes from permanent party: the cadre, the drill sergeants on multi-year assignments, the civilian workforce, the contractors and the families attached to them. That is a real and durable renter base, and it is a small fraction of the throughput figure.
So when a business plan cites Fort Jackson training volumes as evidence of housing demand, it is citing a number roughly an order of magnitude larger than the one that matters. Ask instead for permanent party and civilian headcount, and for the share of that population living off post, because that is the population a Columbia rent roll actually draws from.
The same discipline applies to the university. Enrollment supports rental demand, but student demand behaves differently from workforce demand: it is seasonal, it concentrates in specific submarkets, it turns over annually, and it competes with purpose-built student housing that a conventional garden asset cannot match on amenity.
- Fort Jackson trains about 50 percent of all soldiers entering the Army each year.
- Basic combat training runs roughly ten weeks, and trainees live on post.
- Rental demand comes from permanent party, civilians and contractors, a far smaller number.
- Ask for permanent party headcount and the off-post share, not throughput.
Fort Jackson trains tens of thousands of soldiers a year who live on post for ten weeks. That is throughput, not household formation, and a deck that conflates the two overstates demand by an order of magnitude.
Building steadily into a market that is not growing
Sources 1 U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics2 U.S. Census Bureau
Mining, logging and construction employment in this metro reached 20,900 in July 2026, up 9.4 percent over twelve months. That is the fastest construction growth of any market in this entire series, ahead of Charlotte at 8.2 percent, Charleston at 7.7 percent and Raleigh at 6.8 percent.1
Richland County authorized 3,382 residential permits in 2025 against 196,607 housing units, about 1.7 percent of stock. That is a moderate rate by the standards of this series, below Savannah at 3.1 percent and Huntsville at 2.1, but it sits alongside a builder workforce expanding faster than anywhere else we have measured.12
The concern is not the absolute level of building. It is the combination. Columbia is adding construction capacity at a record rate for our coverage into a metro growing total employment at 1.0 percent, with its largest sector flat and its second largest private sector down 5.3 percent. New units are absorbed by household formation, and household formation follows job growth. Here the second is modest and the first is accelerating.12
Population growth of 4.5 percent since 2020 across 434,956 residents is real but unremarkable in this series, roughly a third the pace of Huntsville, Wake County or Greenville.2
For an underwriting the implication is the familiar one, stated plainly: model concessions through the delivery window rather than as a downside case, model lease-up longer than trailing experience suggests, and do not assume the exit market resembles the acquisition market.
The South Carolina tax treatment, and where it bites hardest
Columbia sits under the same assessment regime as the Upstate, and we set out the mechanics in the Greenville guide: Section 12-43-220 of the South Carolina Code of Laws taxes an owner-occupied legal residence at four percent of fair market value and all other real property, including rentals, at six percent.4
What is worth adding here is where that ratio bites hardest, because it is not uniform in effect. The six percent ratio is applied to fair market value, so the absolute dollar penalty scales with the value of the asset. In a market with a low median home value, the per-unit dollar impact is smaller than it would be in Charleston at $489,100.2
But the ratio is also applied against a rent roll that is the second lowest in our coverage. A tax increase of a given dollar amount consumes a larger share of net operating income when the rent supporting it is $1,228 rather than $1,620. The proportional effect on the return is therefore worse here, not better, even though the absolute number is smaller.2
Richland and Lexington counties set their own millage and the metro spans both, so the tax line is a county-specific calculation. As always in South Carolina: model at six percent of your purchase price, never at the seller’s bill.
What we ask before we buy in Columbia
Sources 1 U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics2 U.S. Census Bureau3 U.S. Army
We treat Columbia as a market we would transact in at the right basis, with no rent growth doing the work and with the institutional demand understood properly rather than taken at face value. The stability is real. The growth is not there, and the pricing should reflect that rather than a Sun Belt narrative. Our method is set out in how we evaluate a market, and the full ranked list is on the markets index.
- If the plan cites Fort Jackson, does it use permanent party and civilian headcount rather than training throughput?
- What share of the tenant base is student, and how does that submarket compete with purpose-built student housing?
- Which county sets the millage, Richland or Lexington, and is the tax modeled at six percent of purchase price?
- What rent growth is assumed against a $305 monthly gap to ownership and a $63,784 median income?2
- What is delivering within three miles, against construction employment growing 9.4 percent?1
- What happens to the model if professional and business services keeps contracting?
- What share of the projected return comes from operations rather than the exit?
Buy Columbia for stability and basis, not for growth. The three institutions that hold this market up are the same three that keep it from accelerating.
Employment by sector
Columbia, SC Metropolitan Statistical Area. Figures are as published for July 2026, preliminary.
| Sector | Jobs | 12-month change |
|---|---|---|
| Government | 85,100 | +0.1% |
| Trade, transportation and utilities | 78,100 | +1.3% |
| Education and health services | 66,400 | +3.4% |
| Professional and business services | 53,100 | -5.3% |
| Leisure and hospitality | 41,600 | +3.0% |
| Financial activities | 35,500 | +1.4% |
| Manufacturing | 31,900 | -1.8% |
| Mining, logging and construction | 20,900 | +9.4% |
| Other services | 18,900 | +8.0% |
| Information | 4,200 | -4.5% |
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Economy at a Glance, Columbia, SC. Retrieved September 2, 2026.
The demand base
Population, tenure, incomes and housing costs for the county. These are the figures that decide whether a renter household exists, and whether it could buy instead.
| Measure | Value | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Population, Richland County | 434,956 +4.5% since April 2020 | July 1, 2025 estimate |
| Households | 167,961 | ACS 2020-2024 |
| Housing units | 196,607 | July 1, 2025 |
| Owner-occupied rate The remaining 39.7 percent rent. | 60.3% | ACS 2020-2024 |
| Median gross rent About 23.1 percent of median household income. | $1,228 | ACS 2020-2024 |
| Monthly owner cost with a mortgage Only $305 above the median rent. | $1,533 | ACS 2020-2024 |
| Median household income | $63,784 | ACS 2020-2024, in 2024 dollars |
| Median home value | $242,800 | ACS 2020-2024 |
| Building permits 2025 About 1.7 percent of existing stock. | 3,382 | 2025, Richland County, all residential |
| Poverty rate | 15.8% | ACS 2020-2024 |
| Bachelor’s degree or higher | 40.7% | ACS 2020-2024, age 25+ |
| Mean travel time to work | 23.1 min | ACS 2020-2024 |
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, QuickFacts, Richland County, South Carolina. Retrieved September 2, 2026.