Our read
Qualitative judgments on a five-point scale, not licensed index values. Ranked #29 of 49 markets we cover.
The case for
- Entry pricing sits below Tampa and Orlando while population growth remains solid, and the employment base skews toward logistics and financial services.
The case against
- Statewide insurance and tax escalation applies here too, and submarket quality varies more sharply than in peer metros.
Our stanceSelective. Basis has to absorb the expense reality at entry.
The figures that matter
- Share of Duval County inside the city
- 98.0% 2020 land area, our arithmetic · U.S. Census Bureau 747.29 of the county’s 762.65 square miles.
- Share of county residents inside the city
- 95.7% July 1, 2025 estimates, our arithmetic · U.S. Census Bureau 1,017,689 of 1,062,963 residents.
- Consolidation effective
- October 1, 1968 Charter approved by the Legislature in 1967 · Florida House of Representatives Four municipalities remained separate.
- Population change, St. Johns County
- +26.7% +72,902 residents April 1, 2020 to July 1, 2025 · U.S. Census Bureau More than Duval County added, on a quarter of the base.
- Financial activities employment
- 68,300 -5.4% over the year July 2026, preliminary · U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics About 8.5 percent of payrolls, and the steepest decline in the table.
- Building permits 2025, Duval County
- 6,017 2025, all residential · U.S. Census Bureau About 1.25 percent of stock on our arithmetic.
Where we would and would not transact
One government runs almost the whole county, and that changes what a statewide statute grants
Sources 4 Florida House of Representatives2 U.S. Census Bureau3 Florida Legislature
This is the last guide in our national series, and it ends on a point that only became visible because of the guide before it. Jacksonville's governmental structure is usually treated as a piece of local trivia. Under a statute Florida passed in 2023 it is an underwriting fact.
The Florida House staff analysis of a 2026 bill sets out the structure, citing the charter directly. "A proposed charter for the consolidated government of the City of Jacksonville was approved by the Legislature in 1967 and took effect October 1, 1968." The charter was readopted in 1992. "The consolidated government operates a county government in the entirety of Duval County and as a municipality in all areas of the county except for the Cities of Jacksonville Beach, Atlantic Beach, and Neptune Beach and the Town of Baldwin."4
The Census figures show what that means on the ground. Duval County covers 762.65 square miles. The City of Jacksonville covers 747.29 of them, about 98.0 percent of the county on our arithmetic, and holds 1,017,689 of the county's 1,062,963 residents, about 95.7 percent.2
Now recall the statute we set out in our Orlando guide. Section 166.04151(7) of the Florida Statutes requires a municipality to allow multifamily on commercial, industrial and mixed-use land where forty percent of units are affordable rentals for thirty years, and provides that the municipality "may not restrict the density of a proposed development authorized under this subsection below the highest currently allowed, or allowed on July 1, 2023, density on any land in the municipality where residential development is allowed."3
The entitlement is measured against the densest parcel anywhere in the municipality. In a typical Florida metro that municipality is a city of ten or twenty or forty square miles, and the densest parcel in it sets a modest floor. In Jacksonville the municipality is 747 square miles containing more than a million people, and every downtown high-rise parcel inside it is part of the reference class for a Live Local project anywhere else inside it.32
The same logic runs the other way at the beaches. Jacksonville Beach, Atlantic Beach, Neptune Beach and the Town of Baldwin stayed out of the consolidation and remain separate municipalities. In each of those, "any land in the municipality" refers to a few square miles, and the density floor the statute produces is correspondingly smaller. Four municipal boundaries on the eastern edge of this county mark a real difference in what the same state law entitles a developer to build.43
- The consolidation took effect October 1, 1968 and the charter was readopted in 1992.
- The city covers 747.29 of the county’s 762.65 square miles.
- Live Local measures density against the highest allowed on any land in the municipality.
- Jacksonville Beach, Atlantic Beach, Neptune Beach and Baldwin are separate municipalities.
The same Florida statute grants more in Jacksonville than anywhere else in the state, because the municipality it measures against is nearly an entire county.
What consolidation does and does not remove
Sources 4 Florida House of Representatives2 U.S. Census Bureau
Structural advantages are easy to overstate, so it is worth being clear about what this arrangement actually eliminates for an owner and what it leaves in place.
It removes municipal fragmentation across almost the entire county. One comprehensive plan, one set of land development regulations, one zoning authority and one permitting process cover 747 square miles. In a fragmented metro an investor assembling a portfolio across a county deals with a different plan and a different council in each jurisdiction, and the answer to whether a use is permitted changes at boundaries that are invisible on the ground.
It also removes annexation as a variable. In most of the markets in this series a suburban parcel can be annexed into a municipality during a hold, changing its regulatory position. Here, outside the four separate municipalities, there is nothing to be annexed into.
What it does not remove is the rest of Florida law. The state assessment cap on nonhomestead residential property, which we set out in our Tampa guide, applies here as it does statewide, and the insurance position described in that guide and in our Miami guide is a Florida-wide question rather than a Duval County one. Consolidation changes who regulates land use. It does not change what Tallahassee has legislated.
It also does not extend past the county line, and that matters because the metro's growth is not staying inside it. The consolidated city is one jurisdiction among several in a statistical area that includes St. Johns, Clay and Nassau counties, each with its own government and its own comprehensive plan.2
The charter itself preserves a set of what it calls independent agencies, including the Duval County School Board, the Jacksonville Port Authority, the Jacksonville Transportation Authority and the Jacksonville Electric Authority. Consolidation produced a single general-purpose government, not a single authority over everything that touches a development.4
- One comprehensive plan and one zoning authority across 747 square miles.
- No annexation risk outside the four separate municipalities.
- Florida’s assessment cap and insurance market apply here as statewide.
- The charter preserves independent agencies including the port and the electric authority.
Consolidation changes who regulates land use inside Duval County. It does not change what Tallahassee has legislated, and it stops at the county line.
Duval County is growing steadily. The county next door is growing far faster, and it is the least useful place in this metro to own apartments.
Duval County grew 6.8 percent between April 2020 and July 2025, adding 67,394 residents, and the consolidated city grew 7.2 percent, adding 68,082. St. Johns County grew 26.7 percent, adding 72,902 residents. That is more than Duval added, on a population base roughly a quarter the size. Clay County grew 9.8 percent, adding 21,344.2
The tenure split explains why we would not follow that growth. St. Johns County is 82.2 percent owner-occupied, so fewer than one household in five rents. Clay is 75.9 percent owner-occupied. Jacksonville city is 57.6 percent, leaving 42.4 percent renting, and that is where the rental market actually is.2
Supply reinforces the point. St. Johns permitted 4,735 units in 2025 against a stock of 152,804, about 3.10 percent. Duval permitted 6,017 against 479,651, about 1.25 percent. The county with the thinnest rental base is building at nearly two and a half times the intensity of the county with the deepest one.2
The household economics are the mirror image. St. Johns records a median household income of $109,839 against Duval's $71,277, a poverty rate of 5.8 percent against 12.2 percent, and a median home value of $489,200 against $303,500. It is an affluent, owner-occupied, fast-building county. Those are excellent facts for a homebuilder and poor ones for an apartment owner.2
Affordability inside Duval is comfortable. Median gross rent of $1,475 takes about 24.8 percent of median household income on our arithmetic, and the gap between owning with a mortgage and renting is $278 a month. That gap is narrow enough to note, though nothing like the $131 we measured in Osceola County in our Orlando guide.2
- St. Johns County added 72,902 residents, more than Duval’s 67,394.
- St. Johns is 82.2 percent owner-occupied; Jacksonville city is 57.6 percent.
- St. Johns permitted 3.10 percent of its stock against Duval’s 1.25 percent.
- Duval rent takes about 24.8 percent of median household income.
The fastest growing county in this metro is 82.2 percent owner-occupied and building at 3.10 percent of stock. That is a homebuilder’s market, not an apartment owner’s.
Jacksonville's employment base is broad, and the concentration that matters is not the largest sector but the one falling fastest.
On preliminary Bureau of Labor Statistics figures for July 2026, total nonfarm employment was 800,200 against a civilian labor force of 847,800, with unemployment at 4.9 percent. Of eleven supersector rows, six advanced, mining and logging was unchanged, and four declined.1
Education and health services grew fastest at 4.3 percent to 139,800. Manufacturing added 2.2 percent, professional and business services 1.3 percent, and trade, transportation and utilities, the largest supersector at 170,400, added 0.4 percent. Construction also added 0.4 percent.1
The decline to size is financial activities, down 5.4 percent on a base of 68,300 jobs. That is about 8.5 percent of all payrolls in this metro on our arithmetic, and it is the steepest fall in the table by a wide margin. Government fell 2.6 percent and information 3.5 percent.1
That combination is worth stating plainly. This metro carries a large financial services back-office employment base, that base is the largest single contraction in its payroll data, and it sits alongside a 2.6 percent decline in government employment. Neither is catastrophic on its own. Together they are the reason we would not underwrite aggressive rent growth here on the strength of the population numbers alone.1
We would note one absence as a positive. Unlike Portland, Austin, San Diego, the Bay Area and Northern New Jersey, this metro's information sector is small at 13,700 jobs, so its 3.5 percent decline moves very little. A market can be insulated from a sector by not having much of it.1
- Six of eleven rows advanced, one was unchanged and four declined.
- Education and health services grew 4.3 percent.
- Financial activities fell 5.4 percent on 68,300 jobs, about 8.5 percent of payrolls.
- Government fell 2.6 percent.
A large financial back office is the biggest single contraction in this metro’s payroll data. That is the number to stress, not the population growth.
Where we would and would not deploy
Sources 2 U.S. Census Bureau3 Florida Legislature1 U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics4 Florida House of Representatives
Our position on Jacksonville is constructive, and it concentrates inside the consolidated city rather than following the metro's fastest growth.
We would underwrite the urban core, Riverside, the Southbank and the Southside corridor around the St. Johns Town Center. This is where the renters are in a city that is 42.4 percent renter-occupied, rent takes a manageable 24.8 percent of median household income, and Duval permits at 1.25 percent of stock, which is moderate rather than heavy. The consolidated structure means one plan, one zoning authority and no annexation variable across the whole of that footprint.2
We would treat the Live Local provisions as more valuable here than anywhere else we have looked in Florida, for the structural reason set out above. A project on commercial or industrial land inside the consolidated city measures its density entitlement against the highest density permitted anywhere in 747 square miles, and against that maximum as it stood on July 1, 2023 if that is higher. Combined with the property tax exemption on the qualifying units under Section 196.1978, which we set out in the Orlando guide, that is a genuinely different pro forma from a conventional build.3
We would not buy stabilized apartments in St. Johns County. It is 82.2 percent owner-occupied, it is permitting at 3.10 percent of its housing stock in a single year, and its median household income of $109,839 with a 5.8 percent poverty rate describes a population that buys rather than rents. Its 26.7 percent growth is real and it is not a rental thesis.2
The risk we would size explicitly is the financial back office. Financial activities is about 8.5 percent of payrolls here and fell 5.4 percent over the year. For any specific rent roll we would want to know what share of tenants work in that sector, and we would stress it directly rather than relying on the metro's headline population growth to carry the underwriting.1
Two diligence items are specific to this market. Confirm whether a parcel sits inside the consolidated city or inside one of the four separate municipalities, because that determines the reference area for the Live Local density floor and the answer changes by a factor of a hundred. And establish the density maximums both currently and as they stood on July 1, 2023, because the statute grants the more generous of the two.34
Confirm which municipality the parcel is in before anything else. Inside the consolidated city the density reference area is 747 square miles; inside the beach cities it is a few.
Employment by sector
Jacksonville, FL Metropolitan Statistical Area. Figures are as published for July 2026, preliminary.
| Sector | Jobs | 12-month change |
|---|---|---|
| Total nonfarm | 800,200 | Pending |
| Civilian labor force | 847,800 | Pending |
| Education and health services | 139,800 | +4.3% |
| Manufacturing | 37,300 | +2.2% |
| Professional and business services | 119,200 | +1.3% |
| Leisure and hospitality | 93,400 | +0.8% |
| Trade, transportation and utilities | 170,400 | +0.4% |
| Construction | 54,200 | +0.4% |
| Mining and logging | 400 | 0.0% |
| Other services | 29,300 | -0.7% |
| Government | 74,200 | -2.6% |
| Information | 13,700 | -3.5% |
| Financial activities | 68,300 | -5.4% |
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Economy at a Glance, Jacksonville, FL. Retrieved September 3, 2026.
The demand base
Population, tenure, incomes and housing costs for the county. These are the figures that decide whether a renter household exists, and whether it could buy instead.
| Measure | Value | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Population, Duval County A gain of 67,394 residents. | 1,062,963 +6.8% since April 2020 | July 1, 2025 estimate |
| Population, Jacksonville city A gain of 68,082, and 95.7 percent of the county total. | 1,017,689 +7.2% since April 2020 | July 1, 2025 estimate |
| Population, St. Johns County A gain of 72,902, more than Duval added. | 346,328 +26.7% since April 2020 | July 1, 2025 estimate |
| Population, Clay County A gain of 21,344 residents. | 239,593 +9.8% since April 2020 | July 1, 2025 estimate |
| Land area, Jacksonville city Duval County is 762.65 square miles. | 747.29 sq mi | 2020 |
| Housing units, Duval County | 479,651 | July 1, 2025 |
| Housing units, St. Johns County | 152,804 | July 1, 2025 |
| Owner-occupied rate, Jacksonville city The remaining 42.4 percent rent, against 17.8 percent in St. Johns County. | 57.6% | ACS 2020-2024 |
| Median gross rent, Duval County About 24.8 percent of median household income on our arithmetic. | $1,475 | ACS 2020-2024 |
| Monthly owner cost with a mortgage, Duval County $278 above the median rent. | $1,753 | ACS 2020-2024 |
| Median household income, Duval County St. Johns County is $109,839. | $71,277 | ACS 2020-2024, in 2024 dollars |
| Median home value, Duval County About 4.3 times median household income. | $303,500 | ACS 2020-2024 |
| Building permits 2025, Duval County About 1.25 percent of stock. | 6,017 | 2025, all residential |
| Building permits 2025, St. Johns County About 3.10 percent of stock. | 4,735 | 2025, all residential |
| Poverty rate, Jacksonville city St. Johns County is 5.8 percent. | 14.5% | ACS 2020-2024 |
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, QuickFacts, Duval County, St. Johns County, Clay County and Jacksonville city, Florida. Retrieved September 3, 2026.