Our read
Qualitative judgments on a five-point scale, not licensed index values. Ranked #6 of 49 markets we cover.
The case for
- One of the most affluent renter populations in the country, with strong retention and a supply pipeline that has slowed sharply.
The case against
- Entry pricing remains high relative to in-place income, and expense growth has been persistent.
Our stanceScreening. A market we would like to own in at the right basis.
The figures that matter
- Local rent control
- Preempted C.R.S. 38-12-301, last amended 2010 · Colorado Office of Legislative Legal Services A matter of statewide concern. What you may charge is not regulated.
- No-cause nonrenewal
- Eliminated C.R.S. 38-12-1303, effective 2024 · Colorado General Assembly Cause is required before a notice to terminate tenancy may even be served.
- When tenant protection attaches
- 12 months C.R.S. 38-12-1302(1)(e) · Colorado General Assembly Part 13 does not apply to a tenant of under twelve months. Exposure scales with tenancy length.
- Exemption for 4+ unit properties
- None C.R.S. 38-12-1302(1)(b)(II) · Colorado General Assembly The owner-occupied carve-out stops at a triplex. Institutional multifamily is covered.
- Notice required to vacate for renovation
- 90 days C.R.S. 38-12-1303(3)(b) · Colorado General Assembly And under 180 days of work, the tenant holds a first right of refusal to return.
- Home value to median income, Denver County
- 6.5x ACS 2020-2024, our arithmetic on two Census medians · U.S. Census Bureau The second highest multiple in our coverage, after Los Angeles at 9.3 times.
- Total nonfarm employment
- 1,657,200 +0.3% year over year July 2026, preliminary · U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Six of ten sectors contracted. Unemployment rose to 4.1 percent from 3.9 in June.
- Effective cap rate at entry
- Pending Not held · U.S. Census Bureau Transaction cap rates require a licensed subscription we do not hold. We will not estimate one.
Where we would and would not transact
Colorado did not cap your rent. It capped your ability to ask a tenant to leave
Sources 5 Colorado Office of Legislative Legal Services3 Colorado General Assembly
Everything else in this series turns on what an owner may charge. St. Paul caps increases at 3 percent. Texas permits a municipality to impose a cap after a hurricane. The Carolinas, Georgia, Tennessee and Virginia preempt the question entirely. Colorado is the one market we cover that went the other way, and an underwriting built on the usual checklist will miss it completely.2
On rent, Colorado is permissive and has not moved. Section 38-12-301 of the Colorado Revised Statutes declares that "the imposition of rent control on private residential housing units is a matter of statewide concern; therefore, no county or municipality may enact any ordinance or resolution that would control rent on either private residential property or a private residential housing unit." The source note on that section records its last amendment in 2010. Bills to repeal the preemption have been introduced more than once and have not become law. Subsection (2) preserves genuinely voluntary rent-limiting agreements tied to a permit, and subsection (4) makes clear those must stay voluntary: a local government "may not deny an application for a development permit ... because an applicant for such a permit declines to enter into an agreement to limit rent."5
One further statewide item belongs in any Colorado model and is set out in our Colorado Springs guide rather than repeated here. Colorado does not give an owner a fixed assessment rate: the state recomputes the residential rate annually, and a single building carries two of them at once, 6.80 percent against local government levies and 7.05 percent against school district levies for 2026.4 Do not hold the assessment rate constant across a Denver hold period either.
On possession, Colorado changed the rules underneath the entire value-add model. House Bill 24-1098 created Part 13 of Article 12, and its operative sentence is Section 38-12-1303(1): a landlord "shall not serve a notice to terminate tenancy or a demand for possession or otherwise proceed with an action for unlawful detainer ... unless there is cause for the eviction." No-cause nonrenewal is gone. The lease simply ending is no longer a reason a tenant has to move.
Two boundaries decide how much this matters to a given asset, and both cut against the institutional buyer.
The owner-occupied carve-out at Section 38-12-1302(1)(b) reaches a single-family home, a duplex or a triplex, and only where the owner lives there, and it expressly does not apply where the property "is not a multifamily property of four or more dwelling units." Read the double negative carefully: at four units, the exemption is gone. Every conventional multifamily asset in this metro is inside Part 13.2
The other boundary is the useful one. Section 38-12-1302(1)(e) provides that Part 13 does not apply to "a residential tenant who has not been a tenant of a residential premises for at least twelve months." Protection attaches at the twelve month mark. A tenant nine months into a lease is outside the statute. That single fact converts average length of tenancy from a soft operating metric into the most important underwriting variable in a Colorado repositioning plan, and it is not a number that appears on any rent roll summary we have ever been handed.2
- Rent control remains preempted statewide, and that section has not been amended since 2010.2
- Cause is now required before a notice to terminate tenancy may be served.
- The owner-occupied exemption stops at a triplex. Four units and up are fully covered.
- Protection attaches once a tenant has been in place twelve months.
- A rental agreement cannot waive any of it. Section 38-12-1305 makes such a provision void and unenforceable.
Ask a Colorado sponsor for the distribution of tenancy lengths, not the average. Every resident past twelve months is a resident you cannot ask to leave without a statutory ground.
If cause is required and the lease ending is not cause, then a repositioning plan needs a statutory ground to recover a unit. Section 38-12-1303(3) provides several no-fault grounds, and for a value-add buyer only one is relevant: substantial repairs or renovations. Read it closely before assuming it does the job.13
The mechanics under Section 38-12-1303(3)(b)(I) are that the landlord must allow the tenant at least ninety days after receiving written notice to vacate, during which the tenant "may remain in possession of the residential premises under the same terms of the tenant’s existing rental agreement." The notice must state the vacate date, give an expected completion date and a general description of the work, and the landlord must then proceed "without unreasonable delay" once possession is recovered.3
Then comes the provision that decides whether a unit turn is worth doing at all. For any repairs "expected to last less than one hundred eighty days," the landlord must give the tenant written notice including the expected completion date, and if within ten days the tenant says they want to return, "the landlord shall offer the tenant the first right of refusal to sign a new rental agreement with reasonable terms."
Consider what that does to a conventional interior renovation. A sixty day unit turn is comfortably under a hundred and eighty days. So the tenant you displaced can elect to return, and you must offer them the unit on reasonable terms. You have spent the capital, absorbed ninety days of notice at the existing rent, taken the downtime, and you may not get to lease the improved unit to a new resident at the new rent. The economics of the classic turn depend on the tenant not exercising that right.
The longer route is worse in a different way. Work expected to exceed a hundred and eighty days escapes the right of first refusal, but a six month unit downtime is not a renovation schedule that most business plans survive.
There is one more restriction, and it is aimed squarely at the kind of asset value-add buyers actually acquire. Section 38-12-1303(3)(b)(II) bars using this ground where the repairs are "required in order for the landlord to satisfy all required remedial action described in section 38-12-503 concerning a breach of the warranty of habitability," or where they are retaliatory. The classic distressed acquisition is a building with deferred maintenance that has crossed into habitability territory. Fixing exactly those conditions is the one thing that cannot support a no-fault eviction.3
The enforcement provisions leave little room to manage around any of this. Section 38-12-1305 voids any contractual waiver. Section 38-12-1306 makes noncompliance an affirmative defense, and provides that where the landlord cannot show compliance by a preponderance of the evidence, "the court shall dismiss the eviction proceeding." Section 38-12-1307 prohibits raising rent "in a discriminatory, retaliatory, or unconscionable manner to circumvent the requirements and prohibitions" of Part 13, which closes the obvious workaround of pricing a tenant out instead.23
- Ninety days of notice, at the existing rent, before possession.
- Work under a hundred and eighty days gives the displaced tenant a first right of refusal to return.
- The ground is unavailable where the repairs cure a habitability breach.
- Waiver by agreement is void, and noncompliance requires the court to dismiss the eviction.
A sixty day unit turn is under a hundred and eighty days, so the tenant you displaced may elect to come back on reasonable terms. Model the turn assuming they do, then see whether it still works.
The policy analysis would matter less if the economy were carrying the market. It is not, and this is the softest employment picture we have looked at in a metro of this size.
Total nonfarm employment was 1,657,200 in July 2026, up just 0.3 percent over twelve months, on a labor force of 1,759,400. Unemployment rose to 4.1 percent from 3.9 percent in June, one of only two markets in our coverage where the rate moved up rather than down.1
Six of the ten reported sectors contracted. Information fell 7.7 percent, financial activities 3.5 percent, other services 2.8 percent, manufacturing 2.3 percent and trade, transportation and utilities 1.2 percent. Professional and business services, the largest sector in the metro at 318,300 jobs, fell 0.2 percent. The growth was concentrated in education and health services at 3.7 percent, leisure and hospitality at 3.4 percent, construction at 2.7 percent and government at 1.4 percent.1
We would flag the composition rather than the headline. Denver’s identity as a market rests on a professional and technical employment base, and both of the sectors that define it, professional services and information, are flat or falling. Education, health, hospitality and government are doing the work. That is a serviceable floor under rents and it is not the growth thesis that Denver is usually sold on.
Population is still rising, which matters more for housing demand than payroll does in any single year. Denver County reached 740,613, up 3.5 percent from its 2020 base, and Arapahoe County 673,820, up 2.9 percent.12
The demand case for Denver rental housing is not complicated, and it does not depend on the job market improving.
Median home value in Denver County is $616,000 against median household income of $94,718. On our arithmetic that is about 6.5 times income, the second highest multiple in our coverage, behind only Los Angeles at roughly 9.3 times and well ahead of the 3.5 to 4.3 range that is typical across our Southeastern markets. Arapahoe County is more moderate at $561,200 against $101,087, about 5.6 times.2
Ownership is correspondingly expensive on a monthly basis. Denver County owner costs run $2,466 with a mortgage against a median gross rent of $1,831, a gap of $635. Rent absorbs about 23.2 percent of median household income in Denver County and 22.4 percent in Arapahoe on our arithmetic.2
The tenure split follows directly. Denver County is 48.8 percent owner-occupied, meaning 51.2 percent of households rent, and average household size is just 2.10 persons. This is a market of small, well-educated, well-paid households, 56.5 percent of adults holding a bachelor’s degree or higher, who rent because buying at six and a half times income is a different financial decision than buying at four.2
Supply is not the offsetting risk it is elsewhere. Denver County permitted 4,727 units against a stock of 375,287, and Arapahoe 3,599 against 277,485. Both work out to roughly 1.3 percent of stock, moderate by the standards of this series and well below Savannah or Raleigh-Durham.2
We would buy here, and we would underwrite it differently from anywhere else in this series. The affordability gap gives this market a durable renter base that does not need the labor market to cooperate. What it does not give you is the operational freedom that most value-add pro formas quietly assume. Our method is set out in how we evaluate a market, and the full ranked list is on the markets index.
- What is the distribution of tenancy lengths, and what share of residents are past twelve months?
- Does the business plan require vacating occupied units, and on what statutory ground?
- If the plan relies on the substantial repairs ground, is the scope over or under a hundred and eighty days, and has the first right of refusal been modeled?
- Are any of the planned repairs ones that cure a habitability condition, which would remove the ground entirely?
- Has ninety days of notice at the existing rent been carried in the downtime assumption for every unit?
- How much of the submarket employment sits in professional services or information, both of which are contracting?
- What rent growth is assumed given that six of ten sectors shrank and unemployment rose?
- What share of the projected return comes from operations rather than the exit?
The Colorado question is not what you may charge. It is whether you can get the unit back, on what ground, and how many days of notice at the old rent that costs you.
Employment by sector
Denver-Aurora-Broomfield, CO Metropolitan Statistical Area. Figures are as published for July 2026, preliminary.
| Sector | Jobs | 12-month change |
|---|---|---|
| Professional and business services | 318,300 | -0.2% |
| Trade, transportation and utilities | 287,800 | -1.2% |
| Education and health services | 228,000 | +3.7% |
| Government | 227,800 | +1.4% |
| Leisure and hospitality | 187,700 | +3.4% |
| Mining, logging and construction | 116,000 | +2.7% |
| Financial activities | 113,800 | -3.5% |
| Other services | 70,500 | -2.8% |
| Manufacturing | 64,100 | -2.3% |
| Information | 43,200 | -7.7% |
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Economy at a Glance, Denver-Aurora-Broomfield, CO. Retrieved September 2, 2026.
The demand base
Population, tenure, incomes and housing costs for the county. These are the figures that decide whether a renter household exists, and whether it could buy instead.
| Measure | Value | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Population, Denver County | 740,613 +3.5% since April 2020 | July 1, 2025 estimate |
| Population, Arapahoe County | 673,820 +2.9% since April 2020 | July 1, 2025 estimate |
| Housing units, Denver | 375,287 | July 1, 2025 |
| Housing units, Arapahoe | 277,485 | July 1, 2025 |
| Owner-occupied rate, Denver The remaining 51.2 percent rent. | 48.8% | ACS 2020-2024 |
| Owner-occupied rate, Arapahoe The remaining 35.3 percent rent. | 64.7% | ACS 2020-2024 |
| Median gross rent, Denver | $1,831 | ACS 2020-2024 |
| Median gross rent, Arapahoe | $1,891 | ACS 2020-2024 |
| Owner cost with a mortgage, Denver $635 above the median rent. | $2,466 | ACS 2020-2024 |
| Median home value, Denver About 6.5 times median household income. | $616,000 | ACS 2020-2024 |
| Median home value, Arapahoe About 5.6 times median household income. | $561,200 | ACS 2020-2024 |
| Median household income, Denver | $94,718 | ACS 2020-2024, in 2024 dollars |
| Median household income, Arapahoe | $101,087 | ACS 2020-2024, in 2024 dollars |
| Building permits 2025, Denver About 1.3 percent of stock. | 4,727 | 2025, all residential |
| Building permits 2025, Arapahoe About 1.3 percent of stock. | 3,599 | 2025, all residential |
| Persons per household, Denver Small households, which is part of why the renter share is so high. | 2.10 | ACS 2020-2024 |
| Bachelor’s degree or higher, Denver | 56.5% | ACS 2020-2024, age 25+ |
| Mean travel time to work, Denver | 24.9 min | ACS 2020-2024 |
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, QuickFacts, Denver County and Arapahoe County, Colorado. Retrieved September 2, 2026.