Our read
Qualitative judgments on a five-point scale, not licensed index values. Ranked #16 of 49 markets we cover.
The case for
- Military and healthcare payrolls are structurally stable, and per-unit basis sits meaningfully below Austin and Dallas.
The case against
- Slower rent growth and a workforce-heavy renter base that requires disciplined operations.
Our stanceActively screening. Basis and stability suit the strategy.
The figures that matter
- Zoning
- Yes Unified Development Code, Article III · City of San Antonio The opposite of Houston, under the same state enabling statute.
- Multifamily density ceilings
- 18 / 25 / 33 Units per acre, MF-18, MF-25 and MF-33 districts · City of San Antonio, Development Services Department Density is capped on the face of the district, not negotiated deal by deal.
- Population growth since 2020
- +7.5% to 2,160,088 July 1, 2025 estimate, Bexar County · U.S. Census Bureau Against 6.7 percent in Harris County and 2.9 percent in Franklin County, Ohio.
- Permits as a share of stock
- 0.74% 2025, our arithmetic on two Census figures · U.S. Census Bureau 6,333 permits against 853,619 units. Harris County permitted 1.54 percent.
- Veterans
- 146,110 ACS 2020-2024, Bexar County · U.S. Census Bureau About 6.8 percent of the county population on our arithmetic.
- Government employment
- 183,100 -1.6% year over year July 2026, preliminary · U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 15.4 percent of metro employment, and contracting.
- Rent as a share of median income
- 22.5% ACS 2020-2024, our arithmetic on two Census medians · U.S. Census Bureau Heavier than Columbus at 20.8 percent or Salt Lake at 19.6.
- Effective cap rate at entry
- Pending Not held · U.S. Census Bureau Transaction cap rates require a licensed subscription we do not hold. We will not estimate one.
Where we would and would not transact
Houston has no zoning. San Antonio has a density ladder
Sources 3 City of San Antonio4 City of San Antonio, Development Services Department
Our Houston guide makes a good deal of the fact that the city has no zoning ordinance, that its codes do not address land use, and that what constrains a parcel there is a privately recorded deed restriction the City can nonetheless enforce. That is true, and it is unusual enough that a reader could reasonably come away thinking it says something about Texas. It does not. It says something about Houston.
Texas grants municipalities the zoning power at Section 211.003 of the Local Government Code, which we set out in that guide. Houston has simply never adopted zoning. San Antonio adopted it and built it out in detail.
The Unified Development Code, at Article III, establishes base zoning districts that divide the city into residential, commercial and industrial zones. For a multifamily investor the relevant part is that the multifamily districts do not merely permit apartments, they cap how many. The City’s own explanation of zoning districts describes MF-18 as permitting multi-family and various attached dwelling types "with a maximum density of 18 units per acre," MF-25 the same "with a maximum density of 25 units per acre," and MF-33 "with a maximum density of 33 units per acre."2
That is a materially different underwriting environment from Houston’s, and neither is straightforwardly better. In Houston you cannot learn what may be built beside you without a title search, but nothing caps what you can build on your own site if the deed restrictions permit it. In San Antonio the constraint is legible on a map, and it is also a hard ceiling. A site zoned MF-18 does not become an MF-33 site because the pro forma needs it to.
The practical consequences are three. First, the entitlement is the asset. The difference between MF-18 and MF-33 on the same acre is a difference in permitted units of almost two to one, and that difference is capitalized into land value. Second, a rezoning is a discretionary political process rather than a private negotiation, so any business plan that depends on one should be underwritten as a contingency and not as a step. Third, an existing building at a density above its current district may be legally nonconforming, which affects what you may rebuild after a casualty. We would establish the district, the permitted density and the conforming status of the existing improvements before anything else.
The Texas statutory material that applies across the state, the conditional rent control provision at Section 214.902, the disaster definition it points to, the equal and uniform appraisal remedy at Tax Code 42.26 and the deed restriction enforcement power at Section 212.153, is set out in full in the Houston guide and applies here without modification. We would rather link to it than restate it.2
- Texas grants the zoning power; Houston declined it and San Antonio took it.
- MF-18, MF-25 and MF-33 cap density at 18, 25 and 33 units per acre respectively.
- The density ceiling is capitalized into land value, so the entitlement is the asset.
- Rezoning is discretionary, so treat it as a contingency rather than a step.
Houston tells you nothing about your neighbor and nothing about your ceiling. San Antonio tells you both, and the ceiling is hard.
Growing at seven and a half percent, permitting at three quarters of one
Sources 2 U.S. Census Bureau1 U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
The last several markets we have written up have shared an uncomfortable shape: building activity running well ahead of employment. Columbus permitted 1.70 percent of its stock in a year when the metro added no net jobs. Indianapolis grew construction employment 6.3 percent while total payrolls fell 1.2 percent. San Antonio is the inverse, and it is the most straightforwardly favorable supply and demand combination we have measured in some time.12
Bexar County reached 2,160,088 people as of July 2025, up 7.5 percent from its April 2020 base. That is faster than Harris County at 6.7 percent, Hamilton County, Tennessee at 6.5, and far faster than Franklin County, Ohio at 2.9 or Marion County, Indiana at 1.5.2
Against that, the county authorized 6,333 residential permits in 2025 against a housing stock of 853,619 units, about 0.74 percent on our arithmetic. Harris County permitted 1.54 percent, Franklin County 1.70, Salt Lake County 1.52. San Antonio is adding people faster than those markets and adding housing more slowly.2
Construction employment agrees. At 69,400 it was down 0.3 percent over twelve months, essentially flat, in a metro whose population is growing at three times the national rate. The builders are not gearing up.12
We would not overstate it. A 0.74 percent permitting rate against 7.5 percent population growth over five years is not a crisis of undersupply; population growth compounds over five years while the permit figure is a single year. But the direction is unambiguous and it is the direction an owner wants: demand accumulating faster than the stock that houses it, in a county large enough that the effect is not a local anomaly.2
The affordability data is consistent with pressure rather than slack. Median gross rent is $1,354 against a median household income of $72,341, so rent absorbs about 22.5 percent of income on our arithmetic. That is heavier than Columbus at 20.8 percent, Salt Lake at 19.6 or Cook County at 20.6, and it is the kind of figure that limits how much further rents can be pushed without wage growth underneath.2
- Population up 7.5 percent since 2020, to 2,160,088.2
- 6,333 permits against 853,619 units, about 0.74 percent of stock.2
- Construction employment flat at 69,400, down 0.3 percent.1
- Rent takes about 22.5 percent of median household income.2
Columbus and Indianapolis build hard into flat employment. San Antonio does the opposite: it grows faster than those markets and builds less than half as much.
A government payroll that is shrinking in a military town
Sources 1 U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics2 U.S. Census Bureau
This is the figure we would want a sponsor to have thought about, because the usual story told about San Antonio does not match what the data currently says.
The military presence here is real and it is large. Bexar County is home to 146,110 veterans, about 6.8 percent of the county population on our arithmetic. Government employment across the metro is 183,100, which is 15.4 percent of all nonfarm jobs, a share exceeded in our coverage only by places built on a state capital or a federal installation.12
That concentration is normally the argument for San Antonio as a defensive market. Federal and military payrolls do not respond to the business cycle, they pay reliably, and military households turn over on a predictable rotation that an operator can plan around rather than fear.
The complication is that government employment fell 1.6 percent over the twelve months to July 2026. On 183,100 jobs that is a meaningful reduction in the metro’s single most stable payroll, and it is the largest contraction of any sector here in absolute terms. Education and health services, the other institutional anchor, also fell, by 0.9 percent on 180,000 jobs.1
What grew instead were the cyclical sectors: professional and business services 4.9 percent on 160,900 jobs, trade, transportation and utilities 3.3 percent on the metro’s largest sector at 216,800, and other services 2.1 percent. Total nonfarm employment rose 0.9 percent to 1,192,200, with unemployment at 4.7 percent, down from 4.8 in June but still the second highest rate we have measured after Houston at 5.1.1
So the mix is moving in an unhelpful direction even while the total rises. The market is becoming slightly more cyclical and slightly less defensive than its reputation. That does not undo the supply argument in the previous section, but it does mean the defensive case for San Antonio should be made on the basis of the veteran population and the installations themselves rather than on the trajectory of the government payroll line, which is currently negative.
What we ask before we buy in San Antonio
Sources 4 City of San Antonio, Development Services Department2 U.S. Census Bureau1 U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
We would buy here, and of the markets we have researched most recently this is the one where the fundamentals argue most clearly for it. Population is growing faster than the housing stock, rents already take a meaningful share of income so the demand is not discretionary, and household size at 2.70 persons supports the larger unit mix that most institutional product underprovides. The reservations are the drift toward cyclical employment and the fact that zoning makes density a fixed input rather than a variable you can improve. Our method is set out in how we evaluate a market, and the full ranked list is on the markets index.12
- What is the base zoning district, what density does it permit, and is the existing building conforming?
- Does any part of the business plan require a rezoning, and has that been underwritten as a contingency?
- What has been permitted within three miles in the last twenty-four months, against a countywide rate of 0.74 percent?2
- What share of the resident base draws on military or federal payrolls, given government employment is contracting?
- What is the unit mix against a county averaging 2.70 persons per household?2
- Has an equal and uniform appraisal protest been run under Tax Code 42.26, as we set out in the Houston guide?4
- What rent growth is assumed when rent already takes 22.5 percent of median household income?2
- What share of the projected return comes from operations rather than the exit?
Zoning makes density an input you inherit rather than one you create. Establish the district and the conforming status before you value the land.
Employment by sector
San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX Metropolitan Statistical Area. Figures are as published for July 2026, preliminary.
| Sector | Jobs | 12-month change |
|---|---|---|
| Trade, transportation and utilities | 216,800 | +3.3% |
| Government | 183,100 | -1.6% |
| Education and health services | 180,000 | -0.9% |
| Professional and business services | 160,900 | +4.9% |
| Leisure and hospitality | 152,400 | +0.9% |
| Financial activities | 101,100 | -0.7% |
| Construction | 69,400 | -0.3% |
| Manufacturing | 60,900 | +0.3% |
| Other services | 43,600 | +2.1% |
| Information | 17,000 | -6.6% |
| Mining and logging | 7,000 | -2.8% |
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Economy at a Glance, San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX. Retrieved September 2, 2026.
The demand base
Population, tenure, incomes and housing costs for the county. These are the figures that decide whether a renter household exists, and whether it could buy instead.
| Measure | Value | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Population, Bexar County | 2,160,088 +7.5% since April 2020 | July 1, 2025 estimate |
| Households | 750,939 | ACS 2020-2024 |
| Housing units | 853,619 | July 1, 2025 |
| Owner-occupied rate The remaining 41.2 percent rent. | 58.8% | ACS 2020-2024 |
| Median gross rent | $1,354 | ACS 2020-2024 |
| Monthly owner cost with a mortgage $569 above the median rent. | $1,923 | ACS 2020-2024 |
| Median household income | $72,341 | ACS 2020-2024, in 2024 dollars |
| Median home value About 3.6 times median household income. | $262,200 | ACS 2020-2024 |
| Building permits 2025 About 0.74 percent of stock. | 6,333 | 2025, Bexar County, all residential |
| Persons per household Larger than Cook County at 2.43 or Franklin at 2.36. | 2.70 | ACS 2020-2024 |
| Veterans | 146,110 | ACS 2020-2024 |
| Poverty rate | 14.6% | ACS 2020-2024 |
| Bachelor’s degree or higher | 31.8% | ACS 2020-2024, age 25+ |
| Mean travel time to work | 25.7 min | ACS 2020-2024 |
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, QuickFacts, Bexar County, Texas. Retrieved September 2, 2026.