Our read
Qualitative judgments on a five-point scale, not licensed index values. Ranked #40 of 49 markets we cover.
The case for
- Entry pricing is the lowest of any large metro in the country, and the suburban submarkets have stabilized.
The case against
- Operationally demanding, with collections risk and municipal service variability.
Our stanceMonitoring suburban submarkets only.
The figures that matter
- What happens to taxable value on sale
- Uncaps MCL 211.27a(3), the year following transfer · Michigan Legislature It becomes the state equalized valuation. No appeal by anyone is required.
- Annual cap while an owner holds
- 5% or inflation MCL 211.27a(2)(a), whichever is less · Michigan Legislature So taxable value drifts below market for as long as the seller owns it.
- State equalized valuation
- 50% of value MCL 211.27a(1), of true cash value · Michigan Legislature The level your taxable value snaps to after you buy.
- Median home value, Wayne County
- $178,500 ACS 2020-2024 · U.S. Census Bureau Below St. Louis city at $197,500. About 2.9 times median household income.
- Rent as a share of median income, Wayne
- 22.4% ACS 2020-2024, our arithmetic on two Census medians · U.S. Census Bureau Cheap to buy and expensive to rent at the same time.
- Poverty rate, Wayne County
- 22.1% ACS 2020-2024 · U.S. Census Bureau Above St. Louis city at 20.6 percent. Oakland County is 7.6 percent.
- Unemployment rate
- 6.0% up from 5.4% in June July 2026, preliminary · U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Against 5.1 percent in the Houston metro. It rose six tenths in a month.
- Effective cap rate at entry
- Pending Not held · U.S. Census Bureau Transaction cap rates require a licensed subscription we do not hold. We will not estimate one.
Where we would and would not transact
Ohio bars it, Pennsylvania invites it, Michigan does it automatically
Sources 3 Michigan Legislature4 Michigan Department of Treasury5 Ohio Laws and Administrative Rules, Legislative Service Commission6 Allegheny County
Three guides in this series now address the same question from three states, and the answers escalate. The question is what happens to your property tax assessment when you buy a building.
In Ohio, nothing happens, because Revised Code 5715.19 bars a board of education from filing an original valuation complaint at all. In Allegheny County, Pennsylvania, something may happen, because any taxing body with a vested interest may appeal, and a successful appeal resets the assessment to 49.3 percent of current market value. In Michigan, something happens automatically, and nobody has to decide to pursue you.56
The mechanism sits in Section 211.27a of the General Property Tax Act, implementing the constitutional amendment Michigan voters passed as Proposal A in 1994.
Subsection (1) sets the base: "property shall be assessed at 50% of its true cash value under section 3 of article IX of the state constitution of 1963." That figure is the state equalized valuation.
Subsection (2) then caps what you actually pay tax on. Taxable value each year is the lesser of "[t]he property’s taxable value in the immediately preceding year minus any losses, multiplied by the lesser of 1.05 or the inflation rate, plus all additions," or "[t]he property’s current state equalized valuation." So while an owner holds, taxable value climbs at five percent a year at most, and by inflation in most years, while the underlying value does whatever the market does.
Subsection (3) is the one to read twice. "Upon a transfer of ownership of property after 1994, the property’s taxable value for the calendar year following the year of the transfer is the property’s state equalized valuation for the calendar year following the transfer."
The Michigan Department of Treasury states the same thing in plain terms: "a transfer of ownership will cause the taxable value of the transferred property to uncap in the calendar year following the year of the transfer of ownership."
Now the consequence that we think most acquisition models get wrong, and it is not subtle once stated. The gap between a property’s taxable value and its state equalized valuation is created by time. A seller who has held an asset for twenty years through a period of rising values has a taxable value far below half of what the building is now worth. A seller who bought last year has almost no gap at all. The length of the seller’s ownership is the size of the buyer’s tax increase.
Which means the trailing twelve months of property tax expense on the offering memorandum is not merely stale, it is wrong in a predictable direction, and it is most wrong on precisely the assets that look cheapest to operate. A long-held, well-maintained building with attractive historic expenses is the one where the pop-up is largest. We would treat the seller’s acquisition date as a required diligence field, and we would model the tax line at the state equalized valuation implied by the purchase price rather than at anything in the historicals.
- Assessed value is 50 percent of true cash value.
- Taxable value grows at the lesser of 5 percent or inflation while an owner holds.
- On transfer, taxable value becomes the state equalized valuation the following year.
- No taxing body has to file anything for this to happen.
The seller’s holding period is your tax increase. The trailing twelve is most wrong on exactly the assets that look cheapest to operate.
Wayne County produces a combination we have not seen elsewhere in this series, and it explains why this market attracts capital from outside it.
Median home value is $178,500, below St. Louis city at $197,500 though above Memphis city at $169,000. Against a median household income of $60,539 that is about 2.9 times income, on our arithmetic essentially the same multiple as Allegheny County.2
But rent is not cheap relative to what people earn. Median gross rent is $1,132, which absorbs about 22.4 percent of median household income. Compare 17.6 percent in Allegheny County, 19.7 in Jefferson County, Kentucky and 20.5 in Milwaukee County.2
Those two facts together are the entire attraction of this market to a yield buyer. Housing is very cheap to acquire and comparatively expensive to rent, which produces headline gross yields that look extraordinary next to anything on the coasts. It is also the trap, because the reason rent is high relative to income is that incomes are low, not that demand is strong: Wayne County poverty is 22.1 percent, above St. Louis city at 20.6, and 27.6 percent of adults hold a bachelor’s degree or higher, against 51.0 percent in Oakland County next door.2
A rent roll paid out of a resident base with those characteristics carries collection risk, turnover cost and delinquency exposure that a gross yield calculation does not capture. We would want trailing bad debt and eviction filings, not just billed rent, before taking any Wayne County yield at face value.
Supply is not the concern. Wayne permitted 3,922 residential units in 2025 against 814,793 units of stock, about 0.48 percent, and Oakland 2,023 against 569,537, about 0.36 percent. Very little new housing is arriving in either county.2
- Median home value $178,500, about 2.9 times median household income.2
- Rent takes 22.4 percent of median income, heavier than Allegheny or Milwaukee counties.2
- Poverty is 22.1 percent in Wayne against 7.6 percent in Oakland.2
- Both counties permit under half a percent of stock.
Rent is high here relative to income because incomes are low, not because demand is strong. A gross yield does not price collection risk.
The suburban county has more jobs than the core
Sources 2 U.S. Census Bureau1 U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Metro Detroit inverts the usual relationship between a core county and its suburbs, and the figures are worth stating because they change where the demand actually is.
Wayne County holds 1,769,038 people, down 1.4 percent since April 2020. Oakland County, immediately north, holds 1,288,337, up 1.1 percent. So far this is the familiar shape we found in Indianapolis and Milwaukee.2
The business data is where it diverges. Census figures for 2023 put total employment at 665,558 in Wayne and 733,671 in Oakland, with 33,699 employer establishments in Wayne against 39,792 in Oakland. The suburban county has more jobs and more businesses than the county containing the central city, despite having roughly 480,000 fewer residents.1
That is not a rounding difference and it should govern where an investor looks. The employment base this metro runs on is substantially north of the Wayne County line, in a county where median household income is $97,760 against Wayne’s $60,539 and poverty is 7.6 percent against 22.1.12
The offsetting point is tenure. Oakland County is 72.7 percent owner-occupied, so only 27.3 percent of households rent, against 35.2 percent in Wayne. The money is in Oakland and the renters are in Wayne, which is the same structural problem we identified in Milwaukee.2
Metro employment overall is flat and the labor market weakened over the summer. Total nonfarm employment was 2,040,700 in July 2026, up 0.2 percent, but unemployment rose to 6.0 percent from 5.4 percent in June, a six tenths increase in a single month and higher than the 5.1 percent we recorded in the Houston metro. Manufacturing, at 234,500 jobs, was flat at 0.1 percent, as were trade, professional services and education and health. Only leisure and hospitality at 1.6 percent and government at 1.1 moved materially upward; information fell 4.5 percent.1
What we ask before we buy in Detroit
Sources 3 Michigan Legislature2 U.S. Census Bureau1 U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
We are not buying in Wayne County. The gross yields are real and so is the collection risk underneath them, the resident base has the weakest income and education profile we have measured, and unemployment moved the wrong way by six tenths in a month. We would look at Oakland County, where the employment base actually sits, with the uncapping arithmetic done before signing rather than after. Our method is set out in how we evaluate a market, and the full ranked list is on the markets index.
- When did the seller acquire the property, and what is the current taxable value against the state equalized valuation?
- What will the tax line be at 50 percent of the purchase price, rather than in the historicals?
- Does the model use the seller’s trailing twelve tax expense anywhere?
- What is trailing bad debt and what are the eviction filings, not just billed rent?
- Which county is the asset in, given the employment base is largely in Oakland?
- What share of the resident base draws on manufacturing, which was flat at 234,500 jobs?1
- What rent growth is assumed when rent already takes 22.4 percent of a $60,539 median income?2
- What share of the projected return comes from operations rather than the exit?
Model the tax line at fifty percent of what you are paying, not at what the seller has been paying. The difference is the seller’s holding period.
Employment by sector
Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI Metropolitan Statistical Area. Figures are as published for July 2026, preliminary.
| Sector | Jobs | 12-month change |
|---|---|---|
| Trade, transportation and utilities | 374,500 | -0.2% |
| Professional and business services | 369,300 | -0.2% |
| Education and health services | 341,700 | +0.2% |
| Manufacturing | 234,500 | +0.1% |
| Leisure and hospitality | 203,700 | +1.6% |
| Government | 184,800 | +1.1% |
| Financial activities | 132,600 | +0.5% |
| Mining, logging and construction | 94,400 | +0.1% |
| Other services | 77,400 | -0.9% |
| Information | 27,800 | -4.5% |
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Economy at a Glance, Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI. Retrieved September 3, 2026.
The demand base
Population, tenure, incomes and housing costs for the county. These are the figures that decide whether a renter household exists, and whether it could buy instead.
| Measure | Value | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Population, Wayne County | 1,769,038 -1.4% since April 2020 | July 1, 2025 estimate |
| Population, Oakland County | 1,288,337 +1.1% since April 2020 | July 1, 2025 estimate |
| Housing units, Wayne | 814,793 | July 1, 2025 |
| Housing units, Oakland | 569,537 | July 1, 2025 |
| Owner-occupied rate, Wayne The remaining 35.2 percent rent. | 64.8% | ACS 2020-2024 |
| Owner-occupied rate, Oakland The remaining 27.3 percent rent. | 72.7% | ACS 2020-2024 |
| Median gross rent, Wayne | $1,132 | ACS 2020-2024 |
| Median gross rent, Oakland | $1,376 | ACS 2020-2024 |
| Owner cost with a mortgage, Wayne $424 above the median rent. | $1,556 | ACS 2020-2024 |
| Owner cost with a mortgage, Oakland $622 above the median rent. | $1,998 | ACS 2020-2024 |
| Median household income, Wayne | $60,539 | ACS 2020-2024, in 2024 dollars |
| Median household income, Oakland | $97,760 | ACS 2020-2024, in 2024 dollars |
| Median home value, Wayne About 2.9 times median household income. | $178,500 | ACS 2020-2024 |
| Median home value, Oakland About 3.5 times median household income. | $343,600 | ACS 2020-2024 |
| Building permits 2025, Wayne About 0.48 percent of stock. | 3,922 | 2025, all residential |
| Building permits 2025, Oakland About 0.36 percent of stock. | 2,023 | 2025, all residential |
| Poverty rate, Wayne Against 7.6 percent in Oakland County. | 22.1% | ACS 2020-2024 |
| Bachelor’s degree or higher, Wayne Against 51.0 percent in Oakland County. | 27.6% | ACS 2020-2024, age 25+ |
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, QuickFacts, Wayne County and Oakland County, Michigan. Retrieved September 3, 2026.